The subject matter described herein relates generally to wind turbines and, more particularly, to a control system and a method of predicting power generation of one or more wind turbines within a wind farm.
Generally, a wind turbine includes a rotor that includes a rotatable hub assembly having multiple rotor blades. The rotor blades transform wind energy into a mechanical rotational torque that drives one or more generators using the rotor. The generators are sometimes, but not always, rotationally coupled to the rotor through a gearbox. The gearbox steps up the inherently low rotational speed of the rotor for the generator to efficiently convert the rotational mechanical energy to electrical energy, which is fed into a utility grid through at least one electrical connection. Gearless direct drive wind turbines also exist. The rotor, generator, gearbox and other components are typically mounted within a housing, or nacelle, that is positioned on top of a tower.
At least some known wind turbines are arranged in localized groups known as wind farms. Generally, each wind turbine is positioned within the wind farm to optimize power production of the wind farm. For example, each wind turbine may be positioned within the wind farm in a location that is expected to convert a desired amount of wind power to electrical power based on topographical characteristics of the farm.
To forecast power production of a wind farm, one or more predictive models may be used to predict the power output of individual wind turbines within the wind farm. Known models typically predict the power output of the wind turbines based on the speed and direction of the wind flowing through the wind farm. Such models, however, may calculate expected power outputs that have high error rates when compared to actual power outputs measured by the wind turbines.